And yes, probably some alcohol too.

We’re at Perq’s, which is where we always throw the afterparty when the concert ends at Future Proof in Huntington Beach. It’s a mile walk along the ocean into town. We take the whole place over. They’re happy to see us. Hundreds of people pouring in on a weeknight, ordering dozens of shots, beers and whatever else they can pour as fast as they can.

The singer hears that we’d just come from a Third Eye Blind show so he grabs his guitar, leans into the mic and strums the opening chords of Semi-Charmed Life. Everyone loses it. That was the song the band had just closed with, dosing 5,000 attendees with an aural happy pill all at once. I look up and people are swinging from the rafters. Sean and Nick are on stage dancing. The girls are belting out all the words. There are whole pizza pies being carried overhead like stage divers, to and from the back of the bar.

The singer switches gears, now he’s doing Wagon Wheel. Perq’s explodes into a group singalong. People on the curb outside are trying to see what the hell is going on in here.

Someone says “it was some sort of financial conference” and they look at us like we’re crazy.

I’m sitting in front of the musician as he conspires with the cocktail waitresses to turn the bar into our own little Mardi Gras. And then Ben Carlson leans in to ask me a question.

“Who’s having more fun than us?”

No one, I say.

“Right???”

You’re right. Literally no one.

We cheers’d. He was asking rhetorically because he already knew the answer. Everyone around us that night knew the answer.

I think about what Ben said a lot. Especially when things don’t go well or something temporarily goes wrong or, as my partners say, I need to count down from 20 to regain composure (happens more than I’d like to admit). I recall it. Not the night itself as there have been many such days and nights. Just the idea.

We carved out this niche in our industry and built an entire world around it. An ecosystem, they call it. Partners, co-workers, colleagues, friendly competitors, fans, industry friends, clients, vendors, readers, viewers, potential customers, potential hires. If you’re in our orbit, you know Ben was right. Still is right. I may take it for granted at times, but never for too long.

Today I woke up and I had mysteriously - impossibly - turned 49 years old. I don’t know how that’s even feasible. If you’ve been with me since the early days of The Reformed Broker blog, that was 18 years ago. I was 31 with a two year-old baby. She’s in her sophomore year of college now. The firm I eventually co-founded from zero went on to become the hottest brand in wealth management. Not the biggest, as I said recently, but in my opinion the best. We own the whole thing, me and my team. We own our own media platform too. We do whatever we want and answer to no one but our clients. It’s the sickest position to be in you could possibly imagine. And then twice a year we throw a massive festival on the beach inviting thousands of our closest friends in the business. Next month I’ll be on stage in Miami interviewing Rick Wurster, the CEO of Charles Schwab. We’ll do it live for the entire industry to be a part of and we’ll record for you guys on the pod. Can you believe it? Me either.

So when Ben’s not around and I need a reminder, I repeat the question he asked me at Perq’s that night.

Who’s having more fun than us?

My job is to make sure I can continue to say “No one” for decades to come.

I’m 49, feeling 29, and grateful for all of it. Grateful for you too. Thanks for sticking with me.

They call what you’re seeing above a change in the internal logic of the stock market this year. The decline is happening monotonically. I just taught myself that word so allow me to use it. Monotonically describes a process, function, or sequence that changes consistently in one direction—either never increasing or never decreasing. The most expensive stocks at the start of the year (X axis) are down the most (Y axis) since January 1st. The cheapest 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 deciles are down the least. That internal logic - that in a multiple compression regime the biggest multiples must be compressed the most - makes sense intuitively. And it’s happening.

Here’s another one from Chart Kid Matt we talked about on What Are Your Thoughts last night. Leadership is coming from stocks in the tiniest sectors sectors of the market. Energy and Materials are smaller than Microsoft. They’re ripping.

Above, you’re seeing the multiple compression play out versus price. Stocks are flatlining as earnings continue to grow - we’re on pace for 14% EPS growth this year according to The Street. The sellers don’t care. They’re spooked. Less confidence in the future. A dollar of earnings today is “worth less” than it had been three months ago given the uncertainty everyone’s feeling about AI, the economy, the consumer, the capex boom, you name it.

Pre-Crisis Vibes.

I don’t know how else to put it.

They’re sorting it out. Making their calculations. Selling the stuff they’re worried about and buying the stuff they’re not. It’s as if everyone, all at once, got the memo to prepare for something.

But what?

You can watch (or listen to) Michael Batnick and I discuss this environment at the links below. Make sure you’re subscribed - we’re going to take you through this, whatever it is. I promise.

THE COMPOUND & FRIENDS

Join Downtown Josh Brown (CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management) and Michael Batnick (Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management) for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about the biggest topics in investing and finance!